From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.
A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”
Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.
A Network Unravels
For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.
Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.
Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.
“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”